Tourism is one of the major compenent of foreign exchange earning for India. Since 2003, launch of Increible India campaign, India has seen a significant increase in number of foreign tourists visiting the country. Though it is still an insignificant share of total outbound torusim in the world, the scenario is encouraging over time. Even though the inbound tourism to India was hit substantially because of 2008 global recession, it recovering gradually with global economic recovery.
This particular blog has given a snpshot on how the inbound tourism has changed during last three and half years (till the latest data avaiable). the analysis provides a month-wise scnario so that seasonality involved in inbound tourism can be kept in mind while looking at the pattern.
The graph below exhibits the number of FTAs month-wise from 2010 january till 2014 June. Two important inferences can be made from this visual:
1. For this entire period FTAs have increased for every month.
2. It shows a seasonality in FTAs with peak during the winter, lean during the summer with marginal increase during the month of July.
The next visual exhibits the year-on-year monthly growth in FTA. The inference can be made from this graph is as follows:
1. The year on year grwoth does not show any particular trend. This suggests that growth does not depend on any specific event during any of the months.
2. Except for couple of months in 2011, all other months on every year has shown a positive growth over the number of FTA in previous year. the year 2011 also shows the least growth in most of the months. This can be staraight away attribute to the uncertainly in global economic recovery, especially in European countries.
The following exhibit shows how the share of FTAs monthwise is changing over the period. The following are the likely inferences from this graph:
1. The share of FTAs in a year is increasing for the months of November to February and a general decrease in share is observed for the summer months.
2. Perhaps this can be attributed to climate change impact? Foreign tourists are gradually avoiding summer months since the temperature in most of the toruists destinations has increased drastically. This includes the his states also. In most of the hill states, where the summer months were comfortable in terms of weather, now experiencing requirement fans, coolers and air conditioners.
3. However, the small period covered under this particular blog is not sufficient enough for making any concrete statement on FTAs and climate change impact. Much longer time series is required to arrive at any conclusion looking at the patterns over couple of decased or so.