The following slides indicate the major land based adventure tourism in India and also the predominant states for each one of those.
The following slides indicate the major land based adventure tourism in India and also the predominant states for each one of those.
By Dripto Mukhopadhyay
In research fraternity, forecasting is always known as “Thankless Job”. The reason being it is one of the most difficult exercise since forecasts depends on large number of assumption about future over and above the assumptions involved in the econometric modelling itself. Being fortunate enough to work on forecasting relating to various sectors ranging from petroleum demand to luxury car to carbon emission, I know the amount of effort and skill goes behind any forecasting exercise, if it is a serious business. Even after that, many of the times the researcher find their forecasts off the target extensively mostly because of externalities. At times I feel that except a “Fortune Teller”, no scientific researcher ever can guarantee about the forecasts. The forecasts can change drastically because of small amount of change in any of the multiple assumptions goes into forecast because of macro-scenario in a dynamic world.
However, a researcher always wants to understand how his forecasts are matched with actual scenario after a few years of the forecasts were made. I did a forecasting for foreign tourists arrivals to India in the year 2008-09 for Indian Institute of Tourism and Travel Management (IITTM) as a consultant. The paper was published later in the “Indian Tourism Statistics”, the only government publication on tourism statistics of India. The forecasts were made from 2010 to 2014. Since recently the latest Tourism Statistics published for the year 2015 contains data for 2014, I felt like matching the accuracy of the forecasts I made in 2008.
The research paper covered 6 countries and all the regions of the world. The data used was various macro economic parameters, household disposable income and certain dummy variables relating to policy and other localised incidences like terrorism etc. The comparison between forecasts made in the year 2008 and the actual foreign tourists arrival to India. The details of the accuracy level of the forecasts is given in Table 1. Country-wise details and region-wise details are given in Table 2.
For any secondary data collected in a large scale and at a macro level, it is always considered that results are extremely accurate if lies within plus/minus 10% deviation level. An accuracy level till 85% (where the deviation is plus/minus 15%) is considered as acceptable for any valid decision making purpose. The numbers presented in Table 1 provides the details of forecast numbers from 2010 to 2014 for all countries and regions covered under the study. It suggests that 62% forecast numbers in the study is extremely accurate when compared with the actual FTA (Foreign Tourist Arrival). If we consider the acceptable limit with 85% accuracy, it goes up to 77% of the forecasted data points. Overall, this results suggest that FTA forecasts made in 2008 was fit to the expectations out of any forecasting exercise. Keeping in mind the global economic recession during end of 2008 and the continuing volatility of the global economy, these results suggests that decision making and policy making can depend on forecasts to a large extent if the methodology used is robust.
Table 1: Details of Accuracy Level of Forecasts
(Forecasts made in Year 2008 for the years 2010 to 2014)
Forecast VS Actuals
% Forecast points
|On target||100% correct||
|Highly accurate||More than 90% accuracy||
|Acceptable||Accuracy level 85% to 90%||
|Low on accuracy||Accuracy level less than 85%||
Table 2: Regions and Country of Details of Forecasts and Deviation of Actual Foreign Tourists Arrivals to India
This article has just been published in Geography and You, Volume 19, Issue 99, Nov-Dec 2016, IRIS publication.
“Climate change as well as poverty alleviation will remain central issues for the world community. Tourism is an important element in both. Governments and the private sector must place increased importance on these factors in tourism development strategies and in climate and poverty strategies. They are interdependent and must be dealt with in a holistic fashion.” – (Francesco Frangialli, UNWTO Secretary-General, Ministers’ Summit on Tourism and Climate Change in London, United Kingdom, 13 November 2007)
Current Situation in India
Unregulated tourism activities have changed the landscape of large number of tourism destinations in India beyond repair. And, perhaps, we cannot blame only the tourism stakeholders, especially, the business owners for this. Their objective in most cases remained revenue maximization and they tried to reach the same. In the process, the ecological balance of the areas is getting destroyed to a great extent leading towards environmental degradation beyond a critical limit. This situation has arisen to a large extent due to absence of regulatory framework relating to tourism industry. In fact, there is hardly any regulatory framework in place to promote of sustainable tourism as an organized sector. This regulatory framework should make sure the sustainability in terms of environment, economy and culture.
“Tourism in the Third World, as it practised today, does not benefit the majority of the people. Instead it exploits them, pollutes the environment, destroys the ecosystem, bastardises the culture, robs people of their traditional values and ways of life and subjugates women and children in the abject slavery of prostitution. In other words, it epitomises the present unjust world economic order where the few who control wealth and power dictate the terms. As such, tourism is little different from colonialism” (Srisang, 1992). To corroborate this view, the following are the ill effects of unregulated and unplanned tourism.
Promoting Sustainable Tourism
To avoid this, the country must promote Sustainable Tourism practices. Butler (1993) defined sustainable tourism as “which is developed and maintained in an area (community, environment) in such a manner and at such a scale that it remains viable over an indefinite period and does not degrade or alter the environment (human or physical) in which it exists to such a degree that it prohibits the successful development and wellbeing of other activities and processes”. Hence sustainable tourism should fulfil the following:
This is crucial keeping in mind importance of tourism industry in the country. Tourism is gaining importance in India over the years in all respects. According to Ministry of Tourism, the sector contributes to 6.88% to India’s income (GDP) in the year 2012-13. In the same year, more than 12% of the country’s employment is engaged in tourism sector. Keeping these in mind, the Draft Tourism Policy document mentioned the following as key mission for the sector.
As can be understood easily from the above situation, there is hardly any policy that talks of regulatory and competition explicitly regarding tourism sector. Perhaps the only significant paper available on tourism legislation in India was prepared by the Indian Institute of Tourism and Travel management (IITTM) sometime in 1990s. The focus was to identify the legislative part of the tourism sector. The complexities in framing regulatory process regarding tourism industry can be well understood. A partial list of 31 legislative acts encompasses tourism industry is presented in Appendix.
However, at the Central or the state level, several schemes are available to promote tourism activities that enhances competition. But, there is no document that talks of a regulatory aspects which is extremely crucial for tourism sector. Unregulated tourism activities have severe adverse impact on welfare of a larger section of the host communities from biodiversity, economic and cultural point of view, while it increases welfare of the tourists (consumers) and direct service providers (sellers/producers). Therefore, a balanced competition policy with appropriate regulatory measures are needed immediately to promote tourism activities that can be win-win for every stakeholder.
Requirements within a Competition and Regulatory Framework
List of Legislative Acts that covers tourism industry
As adopted from an unpublished research paper of Indian Institute of Tourism and Travel management (IITTM)
Butler, R., 1993. ‘Tourism – an evolutionary perspective’, in Nelson, J., Butler, R., and Wall, G., (eds) Tourism and Sustainable Development: Monitoring, Planning and Managing, Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Ontario.
Srisang K. (1992) ‘Third World Tourism: The New Colonialism”, Focus, Volume 4.
Ministry of Tourism (2015): “India Tourism Statistics 2015 At A Glance”, Government of India.
UNWTO (2008): “Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges”, World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain.
WTTC (2013): “Travel and Tourism Economic Impact – India”, World Travel and Tourism Council.
Ramachandra T. V. and Shwetmala (2013): “Decentralised Carbon Footprint Analysis for Opting Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in India”, Research Paper Indian Institute of Sciences, Bangalore.
Ministry of Tourism (2011): “Sustainable Tourism Criteria for India”, Government of India.
Since long, almost a year now, I was thinking of writing on Indian tourism industry and related regulatory reforms. But somehow not able to find time to start writing on this crucial area. Now, to make sure that I write on this and can share and discuss with those interested in this important aspect of Indian tourism among the tourism fraternity, I have decided to write this in a few installments! This one is the first of the series. My endeavour will be to write one in every week through next 3 to 4 weeks.
As we know that unregulated tourism activities have changed large number of tourism destinations in India beyond repair! But, to add to this pinch further, al these destinations are expanding their space of activities much beyond their own territory. And, of course the tourism stakeholders, especially, the business owners cannot be blamed for this since their only objective remains maximization of revenue and profit. In the process, the ecological balance of the areas are getting destroyed completely leading towards environmental disasters awaiting for all of us. And, this situation has arisen to a large extent due to absence of regulatory framework relating to tourism industry. In fact, if one looks into the tourism industry closely, it would be noticed that there is hardly any regulatory framework in place that can be used for promotion of sustainable tourism. In other words, regulatory framework that can stop unwanted activities on part of the business and facilitating pro-sustainable tourism activities, can hardly be identified.
There are large number of factors behind this absence of regulatory framework relating to tourism sector in India. One of the most important fact is hardly any study has been done to seek a tourism regulatory framework in the country. Fortunately, I can get hold of perhaps the only significant paper available on tourism legislation in India which was prepared by the Indian Institute of Tourism and Travel management (IITTM) because of one of my close friend working with the same institute. the paper was written long back, sometime in mid 1990. The principal author of this paper was a legal expert. Since the focus of the study was also to identify the legislative part of the tourism sector, as expected, the paper concentrated more on the legal aspects instead of an analysis of the merits of these legislation in promoting tourism activities. And, it goes without saying that sustainable tourism did not figure anywhere because in 1990s tourism industry itself was not really recognized properly in India regarding economic context. In fact, till today, sustainable tourism does not bear much importance in India, except some mention about it in bits and pieces. however, this paper is one f the most important one to understand the complexities in framing a regulatory process regarding tourism industry in India. Just to provide the extent of complications, let me enlist some of the laws, as mentioned in the paper, relating to tourism industry. This itself is enough strong to suggest how difficult and yet how important is the regulatory framework for Indian tourism sector.
1. The essential commodities act, 1955, 2. Code of criminal procedure, 1973, 3. The airport authority of India act, 1994, 4. The child labour (prohibition and regulation) act, 1986, 5. The motor vehicle act, 1988, 6. Foreign exchange regulation act, 1973, 7. Consumer protection act, 1986, 8. The environment (protection) act, 1986, 9. The prevention of cruelty to animals act, 1960, 10. The public liability insurance act, 1991, 11. The railways act, 1989, 12. The sarais act, 1867, 13. The immoral traffic (prevention) act, 1956, 14. The employers liability act, 1938, 15. The passport act, 1967, 16. The wild life (protection) act, 1972, 17. The prevention of food adulteration act, 1954, 18. The monopolies and restrictive trade practices act, 1969, 19. Forest conservation act, 1980, 20. The road transport corporation act, 1950, 21. The central excise and sale act, 1950, 22. The Indian partnership act, 1932, 23. The urban land ceiling act, 1976, 24. The industries (development and regulation) act, 1951, 25. The explosives act, 1884, 26. The Indian penal code, 1860, 27. The water (prevention and contro of pollution) act, 1974 & the air (prevention) and control of pollution act, 1981, 28. The Indian contract act, 1872, 29. Development authority act, 30. Municipal act, 31. Ancient monument (site and remains) act, 1951
I believe this list is enough to suggest the complexity of the regulatory aspects thought about relating to tourism sector. If one considers this list, keeping in mind that this list is some of the legislation relating to tourism sector, creating a regulatory framework for tourism sector is not only humongous but also almost impossible since different departments are involved in developing these legislation from the perspective of their own requirement, rather than tourism sector. Therefore, it is crucial that tourism sector regulations are thought of separately, which may include elements of these as well as acts from other domains, but under one single umbrella.
Another big hurdle is constitutional provisions for central and state governments. unless a synchronized regulatory framework is prepared, it will not be able to remove the obstacles or barriers towards a sustainable tourism development in the country. I will discuss this issue in the next blog of this series. Thank you.
August 15th 2014, should be marked as an important day for the Indian tourism sector. It is not because there is a new toruism policy declared since 2002, nor beause of some bold and innovative steps taken by Ministry of Tourism of Indian Government. It is simply because the new prime minister Mr. Narendra Modi’s speech on the eve of India’s Indepence Day ceremony acknowledging the potential role that can be played by tourism activities in generating income and alleviating poverty at the local level. This is one of the simplest common sense, yet unaddressed by any past prime ministers of the country in any occassion as far as I remember.
Mr. Modi has exactly mentioned the grass root level linkage of tourism sector that needs to be harnessed for a sustainable toruism development strategy in the country. His words that captured implications of tourism development for a tea stall owner, petty service providors and the similar ones are the most cricual ones. A sustainable roadmap of tourism sector is always envisaged in the form that generates income and employment for local comminity and local economy. The strong multiplier effect of tourism automatically starts turning the unturned stones of development once these acticities are started at the local level.
This is nothing new to anyone involved with tourism development in some way or other. The major problem faced till now was that the tourism officials were more concerned about how to increase the number of foreign tourists instead of domestic tourists. Recognizing the fact that only 2% of the total toturists arrivals are of foreign origin and 98% are domestic, one fails to understand why we ignore dmestic tourists and concentrate more on foreign tourists. Perhaps it is time that we focus on developing domestic tourism also without taking it for granted. Increasing the number of domestic tourists will boost local economic development much more than that can be harnessed from foreign tourists. However, a few cautionary steps must be taken to develop a sustainable tourism across destinations:
1. Awareness generation amongst domenstic toruists to conserve and protect environemnt and destination which is perhaps completely missing at present.
2. Importance of maintaining cleanliness and respect the local culture while harnessing maximum pleasure from tourism
3. To prefer eco-friendly modes of travel/activities rather than those that increase carbon footprint in the region
Local authorities need to play important role in this. It cannot be expected that behavioural characteristics the the travelers will change automatically as desired for sustainable tourism development. The destination management should be in suach manner that the tourists are made to follow the rules strictly, else penalised severely, so that over a time the scenario changes towards a more disciplined tourism sector in the country. Large number of countries in the world are examples of creating such environment over time. The major role played was by governance than anything else. Hope, the new prime minister’s views to connect the grass root level to tourism activities will be translated into some changes in policy making of the authorities who are at the helm of decision making at central, state as well as local level.